Should I pitch next year’s numbers?
Pitches that quoted projections closed 65% of the time; those that stuck to actual figures, 74%.
Pitches that stayed with actual figures closed more often
Correlation, not cause.
A projection is a figure for the future: next year’s sales, the year after, or a target. In 154 pitches the founder quoted at least one projection, and 65% of them closed a deal. In the other 91 pitches the founder gave actual figures only, and 74% closed.
Investors often price the company on what it sells today. When a valuation rests on next year’s sales, they say so, as the paraphrased lines below show.
This is a strong selection effect, not a rule. Companies with little revenue can only talk about the future, and they close less for many reasons. Correlation, not cause. If you share projections, lead with your actual figures and show how you get from one to the other.
What was said
Mohamed Farouk
ObjectionYou're asking for a valuation of 4.5 times next year's expected sales, not existing sales.
EFICA (EFICA) · S1 E8 · 12:56 · Paraphrased
Ayman Abbas
ConcernYour startup is projected to make 5.6 million EGP next year, and you're asking for a 30 million EGP valuation.
IAPI (IAPI) · S1 E11 · 5:39 · Paraphrased
Mohamed Ismail Mansour
ObjectionSecondly, I also think the valuation is high; you're multiplying next year's sales by 11.5.
Picado (بيكادو) · S1 E6 · 10:21 · Paraphrased